Will Britain Restoring Underlying Values ("BRUV") win a seat in the next U.K. general election?
kalshi•
▲+9.4ppedge
Market 3%Posterior 12%
HDI 90%: 7%–19%Bayesian: 12.4% | Final: 12.4%
Sin señales disponibles
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EdgeSeeker
Prediction markets monitor — Polymarket, Metaculus, Manifold Markets
36 contracts
Updated Aug 19, 2026, 04:29 PM UTC
Cross-Monitor Signals (2)
SpendingSpending
Significant Edge (4)
Will become President of the United States before 2045?
kalshi•
▲+8.6ppedge
Market 9%Posterior 18%
HDI 90%: 11%–26%Bayesian: 17.6% | Final: 17.6%
Sin señales disponibles
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Will become President of the United States before 2045?
kalshi•
▲+7.4ppedge
Market 17%Posterior 24%
HDI 90%: 16%–33%Bayesian: 24.4% | Final: 24.4%
Sin señales disponibles
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Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the OASI Trust Fund reserves are depleted such that full scheduled Social Security retirement and survivors benefits are no longer payable under then-current law before Jan 1, 2033?
kalshi•
▲+7.4ppedge
Market 18%Posterior 25%
HDI 90%: 17%–34%Bayesian: 24.9% | Final: 24.9%
Sin señales disponibles
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No Significant Edge (32)
Will Chile's Valeriano Mine copper production exceed 7.5 million tonnes by February 16, 2027?
Manifold••Vol $163.87549846092048
▲+2.0pp
Market 18%Posterior 20%
HDI 90%: 9%–32%Bayesian: 19.6% | Final: 19.6%
Sin señales disponibles
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Will Mauricio Pochettino leave as manager of the US Men's National Team before the start date of the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup main tournament based on effective date?
kalshi•
▲+2.0pp
Market 40%Posterior 42%
HDI 90%: 31%–53%Bayesian: 42.0% | Final: 42.0%
Sin señales disponibles
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Will Chile bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?
Manifold••Vol $53.08942152267615
▼-1.7pp
Market 73%Posterior 71%
HDI 90%: 55%–84%Bayesian: 70.8% | Final: 70.8%
Sin señales disponibles
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Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?
Manifold••Vol $15K
▼-1.6pp
Market 99%Posterior 97%
HDI 90%: 93%–100%Bayesian: 97.0% | Final: 97.0%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket••Vol $484K
▲+1.6pp
Market 1%Posterior 3%
HDI 90%: 1%–7%Bayesian: 3.0% | Final: 3.0%
high_volume
feedback
Democrats win the 2026 Special Election for Senate in Florida?
Manifold••Vol $7K
▲+1.6pp
Market 7%Posterior 9%
HDI 90%: 3%–16%Bayesian: 8.6% | Final: 8.6%
Sin señales disponibles
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Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027?
Manifold••Vol $56K
▲+1.5pp
Market 3%Posterior 5%
HDI 90%: 1%–10%Bayesian: 4.6% | Final: 4.6%
high_volume
feedback
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Polymarket••Vol $788K
▲+1.4pp
Market 6%Posterior 7%
HDI 90%: 3%–13%Bayesian: 6.9% | Final: 6.9%
high_volume
feedback
Will I fly to New Mexico to buy chilis at Costco and cook @billga's Green Chile Stew before Souper Tuesday 2032?
Manifold••Vol $217.96696714740722
▼-1.4pp
Market 74%Posterior 72%
HDI 90%: 59%–84%Bayesian: 72.1% | Final: 72.1%
Sin señales disponibles
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Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Flavio Cobolli
Polymarket••Vol $602K
▼-1.2pp
Market 87%Posterior 85%
HDI 90%: 77%–92%Bayesian: 85.3% | Final: 85.3%
high_volume
feedback
If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold••Vol $204K
▲+1.1pp
Market 16%Posterior 17%
HDI 90%: 10%–25%Bayesian: 17.1% | Final: 17.1%
high_volume
feedback
Will a Canadian team win the Stanley Cup® by the end of the 2030 season?
kalshi•
▲+1.1pp
Market 43%Posterior 44%
HDI 90%: 34%–53%Bayesian: 43.6% | Final: 43.6%
Sin señales disponibles
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Counter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
Polymarket••Vol $771K
▼-1.0pp
Market 82%Posterior 81%
HDI 90%: 72%–89%Bayesian: 81.0% | Final: 81.0%
high_volume
feedback
Will experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?
kalshi•
▲+1.0pp
Market 19%Posterior 20%
HDI 90%: 12%–29%Bayesian: 20.0% | Final: 20.0%
Sin señales disponibles
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Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
kalshi•
~1.0pp
Market 20%Posterior 21%
HDI 90%: 13%–30%Bayesian: 21.1% | Final: 21.1%
Sin señales disponibles
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Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
kalshi•
~0.9pp
Market 76%Posterior 75%
HDI 90%: 66%–84%Bayesian: 75.1% | Final: 75.1%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
When will a supervolcano next erupt?
kalshi•
~0.8pp
Market 26%Posterior 27%
HDI 90%: 18%–37%Bayesian: 27.2% | Final: 27.2%
Sin señales disponibles
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Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs
Polymarket••Vol $526K
~0.8pp
Market 74%Posterior 73%
HDI 90%: 63%–82%Bayesian: 72.7% | Final: 72.7%
high_volume
feedback
Will Glen Powell be cast in the next Indiana Jones movie?
kalshi•
~0.7pp
Market 27%Posterior 28%
HDI 90%: 19%–37%Bayesian: 27.7% | Final: 27.7%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold••Vol $13.6M
~0.7pp
Market 27%Posterior 28%
HDI 90%: 19%–37%Bayesian: 27.7% | Final: 27.7%
high_volume
feedback
Will Jordan Chiles's bronze medal be reinstated?
Manifold••Vol $63K
~0.6pp
Market 30%Posterior 31%
HDI 90%: 21%–41%Bayesian: 30.6% | Final: 30.6%
high_volume
feedback
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
kalshi•
~0.6pp
Market 31%Posterior 32%
HDI 90%: 23%–42%Bayesian: 32.1% | Final: 32.1%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will India meet its climate goals?
kalshi•
~0.6pp
Market 69%Posterior 68%
HDI 90%: 58%–77%Bayesian: 67.9% | Final: 67.9%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
kalshi•
~0.5pp
Market 34%Posterior 34%
HDI 90%: 25%–44%Bayesian: 34.0% | Final: 34.0%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?
kalshi•
~0.5pp
Market 12%Posterior 11%
HDI 90%: 6%–18%Bayesian: 11.0% | Final: 11.0%
Sin señales disponibles
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Will Johnny Depp be casted in the next Pirates of the Caribbean?
kalshi•
~0.4pp
Market 63%Posterior 62%
HDI 90%: 51%–72%Bayesian: 62.1% | Final: 62.1%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
Polymarket••Vol $1.0M
~0.4pp
Market 63%Posterior 62%
HDI 90%: 52%–72%Bayesian: 62.1% | Final: 62.1%
high_volume
feedback
Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 Diabetes before 2033?
kalshi•
~0.4pp
Market 40%Posterior 40%
HDI 90%: 30%–50%Bayesian: 39.9% | Final: 39.9%
Sin señales disponibles
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Will Tom Cruise be cast in a Film With Ana de Armas?
kalshi•
~0.3pp
Market 42%Posterior 42%
HDI 90%: 32%–52%Bayesian: 41.8% | Final: 41.8%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?
Manifold••Vol $40K
~0.1pp
Market 46%Posterior 46%
HDI 90%: 36%–57%Bayesian: 46.1% | Final: 46.1%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will the EU meet its climate goals?
kalshi•
~0.1pp
Market 46%Posterior 46%
HDI 90%: 36%–57%Bayesian: 46.4% | Final: 46.4%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
kalshi•
~0.1pp
Market 47%Posterior 47%
HDI 90%: 37%–57%Bayesian: 47.0% | Final: 47.0%
Sin señales disponibles
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