Will Britain Restoring Underlying Values ("BRUV") win a seat in the next U.K. general election?
kalshi•
▲+9.6ppedge
Market 2%Posterior 12%
HDI 90%: 6%–18%Bayesian: 11.5% | Final: 11.5%
Sin señales disponibles
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EdgeSeeker
Prediction markets monitor — Polymarket, Metaculus, Manifold Markets
39 contracts
Updated Jul 9, 2026, 09:23 PM UTC
Cross-Monitor Signals (2)
SpendingSpending
Significant Edge (4)
Will become President of the United States before 2045?
kalshi•
▲+7.6ppedge
Market 16%Posterior 24%
HDI 90%: 16%–32%Bayesian: 23.6% | Final: 23.6%
Sin señales disponibles
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Will become President of the United States before 2045?
kalshi•
▲+7.4ppedge
Market 18%Posterior 25%
HDI 90%: 17%–34%Bayesian: 24.9% | Final: 24.9%
Sin señales disponibles
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Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the OASI Trust Fund reserves are depleted such that full scheduled Social Security retirement and survivors benefits are no longer payable under then-current law before Jan 1, 2033?
kalshi•
▲+6.5ppedge
Market 28%Posterior 34%
HDI 90%: 25%–45%Bayesian: 34.5% | Final: 34.5%
Sin señales disponibles
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No Significant Edge (35)
Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
kalshi•
▲+4.3pp
Market 39%Posterior 43%
HDI 90%: 34%–53%Bayesian: 43.3% | Final: 43.3%
Sin señales disponibles
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Will Chile's Valeriano Mine copper production exceed 7.5 million tonnes by February 16, 2027?
Manifold••Vol $163.87549846092048
▲+2.0pp
Market 18%Posterior 20%
HDI 90%: 9%–32%Bayesian: 19.6% | Final: 19.6%
Sin señales disponibles
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Will Chile bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?
Manifold••Vol $53.08942152267615
▼-1.7pp
Market 73%Posterior 71%
HDI 90%: 55%–84%Bayesian: 70.8% | Final: 70.8%
Sin señales disponibles
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Will a Clacton by-election happen in 2026?
Manifold••Vol $13K
▼-1.7pp
Market 99%Posterior 97%
HDI 90%: 93%–100%Bayesian: 97.3% | Final: 97.3%
Sin señales disponibles
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GPT-5.6 released by July 10?
Manifold••Vol $60K
▼-1.5pp
Market 98%Posterior 96%
HDI 90%: 92%–99%Bayesian: 96.4% | Final: 96.4%
high_volume
feedback
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket••Vol $3.3M
▲+1.5pp
Market 2%Posterior 4%
HDI 90%: 1%–8%Bayesian: 3.6% | Final: 3.6%
high_volume
feedback
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket••Vol $7.4M
▲+1.5pp
Market 3%Posterior 4%
HDI 90%: 1%–9%Bayesian: 4.3% | Final: 4.3%
high_volume
feedback
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Manifold••Vol $7.3M
▲+1.5pp
Market 4%Posterior 5%
HDI 90%: 2%–11%Bayesian: 5.5% | Final: 5.5%
high_volume
feedback
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket••Vol $2.8M
▲+1.4pp
Market 7%Posterior 8%
HDI 90%: 3%–14%Bayesian: 8.0% | Final: 8.0%
high_volume
feedback
Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?
Manifold••Vol $2.9M
▲+1.4pp
Market 8%Posterior 9%
HDI 90%: 4%–15%Bayesian: 8.9% | Final: 8.9%
high_volume
feedback
Will I fly to New Mexico to buy chilis at Costco and cook @billga's Green Chile Stew before Souper Tuesday 2032?
Manifold••Vol $217.96696714740722
▼-1.4pp
Market 74%Posterior 72%
HDI 90%: 59%–84%Bayesian: 72.1% | Final: 72.1%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?
Manifold••Vol $422K
▲+1.3pp
Market 10%Posterior 11%
HDI 90%: 5%–18%Bayesian: 11.0% | Final: 11.0%
high_volume
feedback
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
Manifold••Vol $236K
▼-1.1pp
Market 85%Posterior 84%
HDI 90%: 76%–91%Bayesian: 83.9% | Final: 83.9%
high_volume
feedback
Mitch McConnell alive all of July 2026?
Manifold••Vol $56K
▼-1.1pp
Market 84%Posterior 83%
HDI 90%: 74%–90%Bayesian: 82.6% | Final: 82.6%
high_volume
feedback
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket••Vol $2.3M
▲+1.1pp
Market 17%Posterior 18%
HDI 90%: 11%–26%Bayesian: 17.8% | Final: 17.8%
high_volume
feedback
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket••Vol $2.1M
▲+1.0pp
Market 19%Posterior 20%
HDI 90%: 12%–29%Bayesian: 19.8% | Final: 19.8%
high_volume
feedback
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket••Vol $2.7M
~1.0pp
Market 19%Posterior 20%
HDI 90%: 13%–29%Bayesian: 20.4% | Final: 20.4%
high_volume
feedback
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
kalshi•
~0.9pp
Market 79%Posterior 78%
HDI 90%: 69%–86%Bayesian: 78.1% | Final: 78.1%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
kalshi•
~0.9pp
Market 21%Posterior 22%
HDI 90%: 14%–31%Bayesian: 22.0% | Final: 22.0%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?
kalshi•
~0.9pp
Market 22%Posterior 22%
HDI 90%: 14%–32%Bayesian: 22.4% | Final: 22.4%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will Jordan Chiles's bronze medal be reinstated?
Manifold••Vol $63K
~0.8pp
Market 24%Posterior 25%
HDI 90%: 17%–34%Bayesian: 25.1% | Final: 25.1%
high_volume
feedback
When will a supervolcano next erupt?
kalshi•
~0.8pp
Market 26%Posterior 26%
HDI 90%: 18%–36%Bayesian: 26.3% | Final: 26.3%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will Glen Powell be cast in the next Indiana Jones movie?
kalshi•
~0.8pp
Market 27%Posterior 28%
HDI 90%: 19%–38%Bayesian: 27.8% | Final: 27.8%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
kalshi•
~0.7pp
Market 27%Posterior 28%
HDI 90%: 19%–38%Bayesian: 28.2% | Final: 28.2%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?
kalshi•
~0.6pp
Market 13%Posterior 12%
HDI 90%: 6%–19%Bayesian: 11.9% | Final: 11.9%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
kalshi•
~0.6pp
Market 31%Posterior 31%
HDI 90%: 22%–41%Bayesian: 31.1% | Final: 31.1%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket••Vol $3.8M
~0.6pp
Market 31%Posterior 32%
HDI 90%: 23%–42%Bayesian: 31.9% | Final: 31.9%
high_volume
feedback
Will India meet its climate goals?
kalshi•
~0.5pp
Market 64%Posterior 64%
HDI 90%: 53%–73%Bayesian: 63.5% | Final: 63.5%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 Diabetes before 2033?
kalshi•
~0.3pp
Market 41%Posterior 41%
HDI 90%: 31%–51%Bayesian: 40.8% | Final: 40.8%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will a Canadian team win the Stanley Cup® by the end of the 2030 season?
kalshi•
~0.3pp
Market 48%Posterior 48%
HDI 90%: 39%–58%Bayesian: 48.3% | Final: 48.3%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will Tom Cruise be cast in a Film With Ana de Armas?
kalshi•
~0.3pp
Market 42%Posterior 42%
HDI 90%: 32%–52%Bayesian: 41.8% | Final: 41.8%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will the EU meet its climate goals?
kalshi•
~0.2pp
Market 45%Posterior 45%
HDI 90%: 35%–55%Bayesian: 44.8% | Final: 44.8%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will Johnny Depp be casted in the next Pirates of the Caribbean?
kalshi•
~0.2pp
Market 55%Posterior 55%
HDI 90%: 44%–65%Bayesian: 54.8% | Final: 54.8%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
kalshi•
~0.0pp
Market 49%Posterior 49%
HDI 90%: 39%–60%Bayesian: 49.4% | Final: 49.4%
Sin señales disponibles
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Daily Coinflip
Manifold••Vol $5K
~0.0pp
Market 50%Posterior 50%
HDI 90%: 39%–61%Bayesian: 50.0% | Final: 50.0%
Sin señales disponibles
feedback