Bayesian Prediction System
Prediction markets monitor — Polymarket, Metaculus, Manifold Markets
Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
Base rate: 30% (N=45 reference cases)
Fed rate trajectory and yield curve inversion suggest elevated recession risk above market pricing.
Will the Fed cut rates at least once by June 2026?
Base rate: 58% (N=28 reference cases)
Sticky inflation data from Q1 2026 suggests market is overpricing rate cuts. Base rate on election-year Fed cuts is lower than current pricing.
Will Chile's 2025 presidential election result in a left-wing candidate winning?
Base rate: 50% (N=8 reference cases)
Historical Chilean presidential cycles and current polling aggregates suggest market underprices left-coalition probability.
Will there be a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine by end of 2026?
Base rate: 61% (N=18 reference cases)
Base rate on armed conflict resolution within 4 years historically higher than current market. US political dynamics add upward pressure on negotiations.
Will Bitcoin reach $100K before end of 2026?
Base rate: 42% (N=12 reference cases)
Low N for base rate (only 3 prior BTC halving cycles). Wide HDI reflects high uncertainty. Market at slight premium to posterior.
Will any AI system pass AGI benchmarks before 2028?
Base rate: 22% (N=5 reference cases)
Very low N for base rate reference class. Benchmark definition ambiguity is large source of uncertainty. Posterior close to market but slight downward adjustment.